As the 2025 holiday season begins, retailers are trying to reach a customer who is both value-driven and increasingly unforgiving. Effective supply chain strategies will be essential to meet this demand.
After two years of inflation and rising living costs, consumers are entering the holiday season more value-conscious than ever. Sentiment remains fragile, impacted by economic uncertainty. Tariff volatility has added another layer, especially for consumers in the US, where prices are edging up. This heightened sensitivity is now colliding with a retail sector navigating tougher margins, earlier promotions and more demanding delivery and returns expectations.
According to marketing platform Klaviyo’s recent Black Friday and Cyber Monday European Forecast report, which surveyed 1,750 consumers across major European markets including the UK, 81% of shoppers in Europe say inflation is shaping their spending decisions, while 77% say the same in the UK. The research suggests that consumers will be intentional about their shopping, rather than panic buying; Klaviyo found that online browsing is up 36% year-on-year, indicating that consumers are researching, comparing and planning before making a purchase.
If consumers are browsing earlier but buying later, retailers may face longer and less predictable conversion windows. This makes demand forecasting harder, increases the risk of over or under-stocking, and puts pressure on supply chains to stay responsive during peak trading periods. More research online may also result in more returns, if customers order multiple options after comparison. Retailers, therefore, will need strong reverse-logistics planning in place. Value-conscious, intentional shoppers are also more likely to respond strongly to price movements and targeted offers, so supply chains need to support dynamic pricing and frequent assortment tweaks, which requires flexible fulfilment.
“For Black Friday and Christmas 2025, what will set brands apart isn’t just the deals they offer, but how they operate behind the scenes to meet soaring consumer expectations,” says Ben Jackson, managing director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) at Klaviyo.
The impact of tariffs
Tariffs have forced brands and retailers to act earlier than usual. National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Mark Mathews says American retailers anticipated tariff pressure long before the holiday season began. “Many retailers pulled orders forward in early 2025 to ensure availability of products for key moments of the year, including the critical winter holiday season,” he says. “Retailers continue to be nimble with their approach to tariffs and want to avoid passing along the cost to consumers. As retailers begin to exhaust remaining mitigation measures, tariffs will likely have a bigger impact on pricing early in the year.”
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